Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.016346 0.018521 0.020896 0.023687 0.026880 0.030423 0.034659
2024-10-13 0.012417 0.015242 0.018602 0.022904 0.028286 0.034821 0.043397
2024-10-20 0.010405 0.013468 0.017320 0.022546 0.029493 0.038464 0.051017
2024-10-27 0.008806 0.011891 0.015950 0.021721 0.029777 0.040719 0.056865
2024-11-03 0.008131 0.011401 0.015879 0.022517 0.032204 0.045976 0.067304
2024-11-10 0.007531 0.010917 0.015722 0.023117 0.034346 0.050980 0.077898
2024-11-17 0.007016 0.010482 0.015562 0.023651 0.036392 0.055994 0.089034
2024-11-24 0.006372 0.009778 0.014919 0.023356 0.037088 0.058953 0.097194
2024-12-01 0.005839 0.009187 0.014376 0.023140 0.037850 0.062040 0.105851
2024-12-08 0.005384 0.008670 0.013893 0.022955 0.038612 0.065158 0.114865
2024-12-15 0.005132 0.008456 0.013872 0.023521 0.040680 0.070672 0.128731
2024-12-22 0.004765 0.008015 0.013431 0.023316 0.041362 0.073795 0.138529
2024-12-29 0.004590 0.007894 0.013535 0.024100 0.043942 0.080695 0.156537
2025-01-05 0.004166 0.007303 0.012772 0.023249 0.043419 0.081779 0.163288
2025-01-12 0.003862 0.006899 0.012304 0.022889 0.043773 0.084545 0.173741
2025-01-19 0.003521 0.006400 0.011618 0.022050 0.043098 0.085195 0.179807
2025-01-26 0.003433 0.006360 0.011778 0.022859 0.045788 0.092911 0.202097
2025-02-02 0.003324 0.006271 0.011837 0.023469 0.048126 0.100139 0.224248
2025-02-09 0.003215 0.006172 0.011863 0.024012 0.050373 0.107410 0.247460
2025-02-16 0.003019 0.005887 0.011501 0.023712 0.050767 0.110652 0.261534
2025-02-23 0.002848 0.005638 0.011191 0.023493 0.051314 0.114284 0.277030
2025-03-02 0.002693 0.005411 0.010908 0.023304 0.051906 0.118078 0.293428
2025-03-09 0.002623 0.005352 0.010969 0.023880 0.054314 0.126402 0.322646